”Syria is usually where empires end, not where they begin”. Paul Cobbs, Islamic Studies Professor (2011)
So recent amazing successes by the Islamic States appears to;
[a] make others, namely older Islamic revolutionary movements, rethinking their relations vis-a-vis the self-proclaimed Khilafah. Thus if the group continues to build into its present ‘hydra-like’ alliance form it will without a doubt achieve greater expansive successes within shorter period of struggle, however, it will also in time, that is after the strategic victories, without a doubt produce another civil war (Fitna) among the victors and the more bloodshed for Muslims.
Sebeos, a 7th century Armenian chronicler/historian (lwrote a famous book titled, Armenian History) of Middle & Near Eastern History, well presented picture of a post-prophet Muhammad victory and after his death as the succession passed to earlier Khalifah[s] who continued expanding the Islamic Power and Sebeos excellently observed (as living in the time) how – with what military strategists refer to as reaching the dangerous ‘cumulative point of victory’ – in time the newly-founded Islamic Power found itself violently devoured from within and among the four factions; at the time it was the Sunnis of Marwanids and Ummayad (today, moderate Sunnis and nationalists), Abbasids and Hashimites (today Shias), Kharijites (today, Kurds) and Neo-Conservatives Muhajirouns and al-ansar (‘old companions of the Prophet: today Salafists). These four sections at the time, as today and tomorrow (after victory) will do, reaped Islam into factionalism and violent warfare as a result of pure competitive power greed and petty disagreements as each senior commanders fought for a piece of ‘khilafah’ seat or as Paul Cobbs (2011) wrote ‘Fitna [that is, civil war] was about succession to the office of Caliphate’.
Anyway, this is Sebeos excellent review of the factionalism among the victors of yesterday (and we argue today and tomorrow);
”Now God sent a disturbance amongst the armies of the sons of Ishmael, and their unity was split. [As] they fell into mutual conflict and divided into four section’, as related above, so ”they began to fight with each other and to kill each other with enormous slaughter” (Our emphasis in Italics).
This is the point. If one is to forecast/ prophesize then one can say without much doubt that whatever happens what will follow will be more bloodshed as Syrian-led, Iraqi-led, Egyptian-led or Khurasan-led senior cadres will seek to gain and hold more Khilafah rights and power to rule over the entire Muslim World, however The Islamic State well knowledgeable leadership (on Islamic history and studies) appears to ‘solve this problem’ by empowering local Amirs, but still time will come when these like Alexander’s and Prophets companions/successors who divided the spoils of the empires among themselves will in time turn their weapons of war against one another!
Already what can be observed is the Realpolitiks of coalition and ‘ba’ya’ making. Even the powerful ISIS as led by some of former Saddam Baathists can no longer feel free to divulge or to ‘covertly manipulate or hijack’ the purely Islamic revolutionary agenda (what in the west is referred to as ‘Jihadists’ or ‘Islamists’). The Baathists have, seemingly, been co-opted into an Islamic Agenda and Objectives as well ‘code of conduct’; in simpler words, ISIS is still Zarqawian-AlQaeda in form, agenda and ‘lesser’ on behaviour (the primary source of disagreement with senior old guards in exile). The interesting thing is to see how ISIS Zarqawians[-baathists] will do when they come face to face with ‘old guards’ mainly within key dominant battlefield theatres such as Yemen (and AQAP), Maghreb (and AQIM), Somalia (and AlShabab) and of course, the heart of the revolution (the safest popular base for command and control/leadership) AfPak (Afghanistan and Pakistan and the AlQaeda-Taliban fierce veterans).
[b] With that said we can now discuss how the expansive successes of Islamic State is tacitly co-opting Muslim tolerance, acceptance and support of the group and it’s Khilafah agenda. For Muslim, the hard fact is, as long as anyone or any group, including ISIS and it’s well thought out ‘strategic application of brutal violence’, KICKS OUT or challenges the western hegemony and it’s local regional spineless treacherous muppets (or puppets or client states etc) the most hated among the Muslims, then every Muslim is tolerant of whatever violent brutality or rule that comes after these; that is AS LONG AS IT IS ISLAMIC AND WITHOUT STRINGS ATTACHED TO SOME EXTERNAL (non-Islamic) MASTERS – This is the hard truth and it is why ISIS as all other Muslim revolutionary movements are continuously being cheered after liberating lands and people from the Muppets and their masters and it is exactly why ISIS has grown and expanded fast and might continue to surprise with more successes and expansion as well as rising popularity among Muslim populace and Muslim fighting revolutioonary groups, including old guards like Talibans and Al-Qaeda.
Here is an open-source short video clip [13mins] of recent Ramadi street-fighting and house-to-house fighting (cleaning or clearing operations): New video message from The Islamic State: “al-Ramādī: Graveyard of the Enemies – Wilāyat al-Ānbār” (Source: Jihadology Site).
Please be warned the clip contains violent fire-fighting (mainly firing guns and exploding hand grenades) and around 11mins of the clip you will see dead bodies for 0.30secs.
Finally A MUST READ in a newly published interview with The Guardian a senior British Police officer involved in ”anti-terror” – and mainly ”Muslim Communities Spying” efforts – claims the present intrusive and spying free-powers bestowed upon them, that is, enjoyed by security services towards UK Muslim communities are not enough, so he asks for more intrusive measures targeting directly into the ‘private lives’ of British Muslims, WOW! – You got it buster, because we don’t care – your country, your laws!
The interview article link: Jihadi threat requires move into ‘private space’ of UK Muslims, says police chief | World news | The Guardian